Agency Risk Analysis

Agency Disruption Scores

A composite score measuring workforce disruption at every federal agency — based on reduction rates, retirement eligibility, separation surges, RIF activity, and quit rates. High scores indicate the biggest changes. Whether that's a problem or progress depends on whether the agency was bloated to begin with.

Highest Risk Agency

General Services Administration

Score: 81/100

Average Risk Score

Across 128 agencies

Critical Zone (>60)

Agencies in critical risk

Hide small agencies (<50 employees)79 of 128 shown

Agency	Risk Score↓	Employees	Retirement %	STEM %	RIF Count	2025 Seps	% Reduction
General Services Administration	81	10.3K	34.2%	11.8%	252	3,442	33.3%
Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service	79	91	39.6%	3.3%	6	122	>100%
Office of Personnel Management	77	2.3K	30.8%	12.5%	127	908	39.8%
Commodity Futures Trading Commission	73	548	33.8%	15.3%	13	153	27.9%
Small Business Administration	70	5.8K	41.9%	10.8%	59	3,053	52.8%
National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities	70	209	31.1%	8.6%	91	282	>100%
Department of Health and Human Services	69	75.1K	32.8%	55.4%	4,453	19,286	25.7%
Federal Labor Relations Authority	69	84	31%	6%	3	41	48.8%
Department of State	67	11.7K	29.6%	29.8%	872	3,904	33.3%
Department of Education	66	2.5K	29.4%	10.5%	698	1,945	79.3%
Federal Housing Finance Agency	64	618	24.9%	9.4%	17	287	46.4%
U.S. Agency for International Development	63	370	33.5%	11.1%	3,716	4,746	>100%
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation	62	5.6K	33.1%	9.6%	7	1,083	19.2%
Department of Energy	61	15K	33.3%	35.8%	0	3,053	20.4%
Environmental Protection Agency	61	14.7K	32.8%	62.9%	28	2,442	16.7%
Department of Labor	61	12.4K	34.6%	21.5%	0	2,202	17.7%
Federal Reserve System	60	1.2K	28.6%	14.3%	3	501	40.1%
Department of the Treasury	59	89.9K	30.1%	10.3%	10	28,858	32.1%
Department of Housing and Urban Development	59	6.3K	36.4%	8.1%	0	2,695	42.8%
National Archives and Records Administration	58	2.4K	29.9%	4%	30	482	19.8%
National Science Foundation	58	1.2K	37.7%	38.1%	4	543	45.3%
Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation	57	863	39.9%	23.4%	0	116	13.4%
Federal Election Commission	57	252	36.1%	13.9%	0	43	17.1%
Millennium Challenge Corporation	56	235	25.5%	7.2%	0	132	56.2%
Peace Corps	55	709	35.1%	18.1%	0	317	44.7%
Commission on Civil Rights	55	54	29.6%	42.6%	0	6	11.1%
Federal Communications Commission	54	1.3K	40.9%	23.1%	0	281	22.4%
U.S. International Development Finance Corporation	54	531	21.7%	6%	0	226	42.6%
Armed Forces Retirement Home	53	281	45.9%	34.2%	0	66	23.5%
National Labor Relations Board	52	1.1K	32.9%	2.5%	0	161	14.5%
Federal Trade Commission	52	1K	19.6%	12.4%	0	313	30.9%
Export-Import Bank of the United States	52	335	43.9%	11.9%	2	100	29.9%
Office of National Drug Control Policy	52	57	28.1%	10.5%	0	27	47.4%
U.S. Agency for Global Media	51	822	39.3%	6.7%	0	381	46.4%
Equal Employment Opportunity Commission	50	1.8K	32.4%	4.9%	0	336	19%
Corporation for National and Community Service	50	412	16%	8%	0	328	79.6%
Department of Transportation	49	53.5K	25.6%	15.5%	0	7,433	13.9%
Securities and Exchange Commission	49	4K	28.6%	11.5%	0	840	21%
Office of Management and Budget	49	523	15.7%	9.8%	3	251	48%
Department of Agriculture	48	72K	23.9%	30.2%	6	24,692	34.3%
National Aeronautics and Space Administration	48	16.9K	35.8%	67.8%	13	1,357	8%
Department of Commerce	47	42.1K	34%	29.6%	0	9,397	22.3%
Surface Transportation Board	47	107	26.2%	15.9%	0	25	23.4%
Election Assistance Commission	47	70	15.7%	15.7%	0	13	18.6%
Nuclear Regulatory Commission	45	2.6K	35.7%	62.7%	0	333	12.6%
Consumer Product Safety Commission	45	443	30.2%	31.2%	4	88	19.9%
Selective Service System	45	145	54.5%	12.4%	0	20	13.8%
Federal Maritime Commission	45	112	32.1%	14.3%	0	24	21.4%
Office of Government Ethics	45	63	22.2%	11.1%	0	12	19%
Department of Veterans Affairs	44	451.1K	30.8%	42.8%	0	49,622	11%
Department of the Navy	43	205.6K	26.9%	29.2%	2	23,399	11.4%
U.S. International Trade Commission	43	413	27.8%	27.6%	0	53	12.8%
Office of Administration	43	258	28.3%	13.2%	0	45	17.4%
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative	43	226	22.1%	2.2%	0	50	22.1%
Department of Homeland Security	42	227.6K	20.9%	6.1%	178	24,186	10.6%
Social Security Administration	42	50.7K	25.7%	5.9%	1	6,940	13.7%
American Battle Monuments Commission	42	79	36.7%	10.1%	0	7	8.9%
Presidio Trust	41	316	32.3%	12.7%	0	27	8.5%
Department of the Army	40	198.4K	30.4%	24.5%	2	28,308	14.3%
Department of Defense	40	146.6K	32.7%	22.5%	14	21,845	14.9%
Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board	40	100	33%	68%	0	19	19%
Department of the Air Force	39	156.7K	28.9%	22.5%	0	23,300	14.9%
Department of Justice	39	107.4K	13.8%	12.3%	96	13,880	12.9%
National Credit Union Administration	38	1.2K	33.4%	5%	0	41	3.5%
National Transportation Safety Board	37	411	35%	22.1%	0	53	12.9%
Merit Systems Protection Board	37	162	29.6%	6.8%	0	27	16.7%
Department of the Interior	36	56.9K	27.5%	29%	0	14,743	25.9%
International Boundary and Water Commission U.S. Section	36	251	30.7%	21.1%	0	28	11.2%
Smithsonian Institution	35	4.2K	37.9%	13.1%	3	424	10%
Railroad Retirement Board	34	706	36.4%	10.3%	0	80	11.3%
Office of Special Counsel	32	116	15.5%	4.3%	0	18	15.5%
Trade and Development Agency	32	51	19.6%	3.9%	0	14	27.5%
Medicaid & Chip Payment & Access Comm	32	50	30%	0%	0	5	10%
Government Publishing Office	31	1.6K	49.4%	9.1%	0	91	5.5%
Fed Retirement Thrift Investment Board	31	241	37.3%	22.4%	0	23	9.5%
Court Services and Offender Supervision Agency	30	952	25.6%	66.4%	0	97	10.2%
Farm Credit Administration	29	306	18.3%	12.4%	0	44	14.4%
U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum	28	100	53%	7%	0	10	10%
Judicial Branch	23	168	16.7%	4.2%	0	21	12.5%

Methodology: How Risk Scores Are Calculated

Each agency's risk score (0–100) is a weighted composite of five factors:

Workforce Reduction Rate (30%) — Percentage of employees lost through separations in 2025 vs. headcount.
Separation Surge (25%) — Year-over-year increase in separations (2025 vs. 2024). Captures sudden acceleration.
Retirement Eligibility (20%) — Percentage of current employees eligible to retire. Higher = more turnover potential (and more opportunity to right-size).
RIF Activity (15%) — Number of Reductions in Force as a share of total employees. Direct involuntary losses.
Quit Rate (10%) — Percentage of separations that are voluntary quits. High quit rates may signal employees choosing private sector over government.

Scores are normalized on a 0–100 scale. Data source: OPM FedScope, December 2025 employment + FY2025 separations.

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