OpenFeds Analysis
Firing Federal Workers: A 170-Day Obstacle Course
The federal government fires about 0.5% of its workforce per year for cause — roughly 11,000 out of 2.2 million. The private sector rate is 2-3x higher. It's not that federal workers are 3x better — it's that firing them requires navigating a bureaucratic process so painful that most managers don't bother.
📊Termination by the Numbers
Let's start with the data. Federal employee termination rates are dramatically lower than the private sector — and the gap has been consistent for decades.
0.5%
Federal Firing Rate
For-cause terminations annually
1.5%
Private Sector Rate
For-cause terminations
~11,000
Fired Per Year
Out of 2.2M federal workers
170+ days
Avg Time to Fire
For performance-based removal
| Separation Type | Annual Count | % of Workforce | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Removal for cause (misconduct) | ~7,500 | 0.34% | Includes attendance, conduct, criminal |
| Removal for performance | ~3,500 | 0.16% | Documented poor performance |
| Probationary termination | ~15,000 | 0.68% | During first 1-2 year probation |
| Voluntary resignation (in lieu) | ~8,000 | 0.36% | Quit before formal firing |
| Retirement (in lieu) | ~5,000 | 0.23% | Retired rather than face action |
| Total involuntary + quasi-involuntary | ~39,000 | 1.77% | All categories combined |
The 0.5% for-cause rate understates the picture because many poor performers exit through "voluntary" resignation or retirement when they see the writing on the wall. Including these quasi-involuntary separations brings the effective rate closer to 1.8% — still below private sector norms but less extreme than the headline number suggests.
Federal managers report that it takes 6-12 months of documentation, counseling, and progressive discipline to remove a poor performer. Most say the process is so arduous that they transfer problem employees instead — making them someone else's problem.
— MSPB Merit Principles Survey, 2022
📋The Firing Process
Firing a federal employee for poor performance under Chapter 43 of Title 5 is a multi-step process that would make Kafka proud. Here's what a manager faces:
1. Document Performance Deficiencies
Ongoing (30-90 days minimum)The manager must identify specific, measurable performance standards that the employee is failing to meet. Vague complaints like 'bad attitude' or 'not a team player' won't survive review. Every deficiency needs documentation — emails, work products, missed deadlines.
2. Issue a Performance Improvement Plan (PIP)
30-120 daysThe employee gets a formal written PIP with specific improvement targets and a deadline (minimum 30 days, often 60-120). During this period, the manager must provide coaching, resources, and regular feedback — all documented. If the employee improves, the process stops.
3. Propose Removal
30 days advance notice requiredIf the employee fails the PIP, the manager proposes removal in writing. The employee gets at least 30 days' advance notice and can respond in writing or orally. They can also have a representative (usually a union rep) present.
4. Deciding Official Review
15-30 daysA separate, higher-level official (not the direct supervisor) reviews the case and makes the final removal decision. This official must consider the employee's response and can uphold, modify, or withdraw the action.
5. Employee Appeals
30-120+ daysThe terminated employee can appeal to the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB), file an EEO complaint, file a union grievance, or pursue all three simultaneously. Each track has its own timeline and proceedings.
6. MSPB Adjudication
120-365+ daysIf appealed to MSPB, an administrative judge holds a hearing (often months after the appeal). The agency bears the burden of proof. If the judge finds any procedural error — missed documentation, inadequate PIP, or insufficient notice — the removal can be reversed.
⏱️ Total Timeline
From first documented deficiency to final, un-appealable removal: 6-18 months minimum. If the employee appeals to MSPB and wins reinstatement, the agency can start over — or, more commonly, gives up and reassigns the employee to a position where they can do less damage. During the entire process, the employee continues to receive full pay and benefits.
⚖️The MSPB Appeals Machine
The Merit Systems Protection Board is the federal government's employment court. Created in 1978 to protect employees from political interference, it has become the primary mechanism through which fired employees fight — and often win — their jobs back.
~6,000
Appeals Filed Annually
To MSPB
25%
Employee Win Rate
Reversed or settled
243 days
Avg Case Duration
Initial adjudication
~1,500
Reinstated Per Year
Returned to their position
| Appeal Outcome | % of Cases | What Happens |
|---|---|---|
| Agency action upheld | ~55% | Firing stands. Employee is out. |
| Settlement agreement | ~15% | Agency and employee negotiate. Often includes back pay and resignation instead of removal on record. |
| Reversed (agency error) | ~10% | Procedural defect found. Employee reinstated with full back pay. |
| Mitigated (penalty reduced) | ~8% | Judge agrees misconduct occurred but reduces penalty (e.g., suspension instead of removal). |
| Dismissed (procedural) | ~12% | Appeal dismissed on technical grounds — late filing, wrong forum, etc. |
One in four federal employees who appeal their firing get some form of relief — reversal, mitigation, or settlement with back pay. That's not a system that makes it easy to fire poor performers. That's a system that makes it expensive to try.
📌 The MSPB Vacancy Crisis
From 2017 to 2022, MSPB had zero board members — no quorum to decide appeals. Over 3,600 cases piled up without final resolution. Employees in limbo for years — neither fully fired nor fully reinstated. The board was finally reconstituted in 2022, but the backlog took years to clear. A system that can't function for five years because of Senate inaction is a system designed to fail.
🔑The Probationary Loophole
There is exactly one window where firing a federal employee is straightforward: the probationary period. New hires typically serve a 1-year probationary period (2 years for some positions) during which they can be terminated with minimal process and no MSPB appeal rights.
Probationary vs Tenured Termination
- Probationary employee: Manager can terminate with a brief written notice. No PIP required. No MSPB appeal. Process takes days, not months.
- Tenured employee: Full Chapter 43/75 process. PIP, 30-day notice, deciding official, MSPB rights. Process takes 6-18 months.
- The cliff: The day an employee completes probation, firing difficulty increases by an order of magnitude. Smart managers make retention decisions before this date — but many don't.
About 15,000 probationary employees are terminated each year — more than the number of tenured employees fired for cause and performance combined. This suggests the probationary period works as intended: it identifies poor fits early. The problem is what happens after. Once an employee crosses the probationary threshold, the protections make removal so difficult that managers essentially stop trying.
In FY2023, 79% of federal supervisors reported that they had managed an employee they considered a poor performer. Only 8% initiated formal removal proceedings. The most common response? Transfer the employee to another unit.
— MSPB Merit Principles Survey
🎯The Accountability Deficit
Federal employee protections exist for good reason — they prevent political firings, protect whistleblowers, and ensure that career civil servants can tell truth to power without fear. The Pendleton Act of 1883 was a direct response to the spoils system. These aren't protections to be discarded lightly.
But the current system has swung too far. When it takes 170+ days to fire someone for documented poor performance, when 25% of firings are reversed on appeal, and when 79% of managers say they've managed a poor performer but only 8% take action — the system isn't protecting merit. It's protecting mediocrity.
Reforms That Could Work:
- →Shorten the PIP to 30 days maximum. The current 60-120 day PIPs are a courtesy that delays accountability. If an employee can't demonstrate improvement in 30 days, another 90 won't help.
- →Extend probation to 2 years for all positions. One year isn't enough to evaluate performance in complex roles. The DOD already uses 2-year probation for many positions.
- →Time-limit MSPB appeals. Require initial decisions within 90 days. The current 243-day average is unacceptable for both employees and agencies.
- →Raise the bar for reversal. MSPB should reverse removals only for substantive errors, not technical procedural defects like a missed form or late notice.
- →Train managers to manage. Most federal supervisors receive little training on performance management or the removal process. They avoid it because they don't understand it.
The 2.2 million federal employees include hundreds of thousands of dedicated professionals working in critical occupations — from air traffic controllers to VA nurses to FBI agents. They deserve colleagues who pull their weight. The current system fails them by making it nearly impossible to remove the small percentage who don't.
Protecting federal employees from political retaliation is essential. Protecting them from accountability is not. The challenge is building a system that does the first without enabling the second. Right now, we have the opposite — a system so focused on preventing unjust terminations that it makes just terminations nearly impossible.