OpenFeds Analysis
DOGE Tracker: Separating Signal from Noise
The Department of Government Efficiency promised $2 trillion in savings. The actual number is far smaller — but the workforce impact is real. Here's what the data actually shows.
🎯The Promise vs Reality
When DOGE was announced in late 2024, the rhetoric was bold: eliminate waste, cut bureaucracy, save trillions. Elon Musk initially claimed $2 trillion in potential savings. The final tally will be significantly less — but the workforce impact has been substantial.
Promised Savings
$2T
Initial DOGE target
Claimed Savings
~$160B
DOGE's own estimate (disputed)
Verified Savings
~$35-50B
Independent estimates (CBO, GAO)
Positions Affected
~217K
Eliminated, frozen, or restructured
DOGE promised $2 trillion in cuts. Even by their own generous math, they've found $160 billion. By independent estimates, real savings are closer to $35-50 billion. That's still significant — but it's 2% of what was promised.
The gap between promise and reality isn't surprising. Most federal spending is mandatory — Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest on debt — and untouchable without legislation. Discretionary spending, where workforce costs sit, is only about 25% of the budget. You can't save $2 trillion from a $1.7 trillion discretionary budget.
📊By the Numbers
Based on OPM FedScope data comparing January 2025 to December 2025, here's what actually happened to the federal workforce:
Net Separations (2025)
335.2K
Jan-Nov 2025
vs 2024 Same Period
201.1K
Jan-Nov 2024
Excess Separations
+134.1K
Above normal attrition
⚠️ Important Caveat
Not all excess separations are DOGE-driven. Some reflect normal turnover variation, pandemic-era deferred retirements finally happening, and voluntary departures accelerated by uncertainty. We estimate 60-70% of the excess is directly attributable to DOGE-related actions (RIFs, hiring freezes, early retirement incentives, agency restructuring).
Breakdown by Separation Type (Estimated):
Reduction in Force (RIF)
Formal layoffs with bumping rights
Deferred Resignation / Early Retirement
Voluntary with incentives
Hiring Freeze Attrition
Vacancies not backfilled
Agency Restructuring
Reorganizations, consolidations
Probationary Terminations
New hires in first year released
Normal Excess Attrition
Above-baseline voluntary departures
🏛️Hardest-Hit Agencies
DOGE's impact wasn't evenly distributed. Some agencies were targeted for dramatic restructuring while others were barely touched. The pattern reveals priorities: non-defense discretionary agencies bore the brunt.
USAID
~85%Near-total shutdown. From 4,000+ to ~600 core staff. The most dramatic single agency reduction.
Department of Education
~50%From 4,200 to ~2,100. Reflects stated goal of 'returning education to the states.'
EPA
~35%From 14,600 to ~9,500. Regulatory enforcement dramatically reduced.
IRS
~25%From 90,000+ to ~68,000. Ironically, IRS employees generate $5-12 in revenue per $1 of cost.
HUD
~20%From 6,300 to ~5,000. Housing program administration consolidated.
OPM
~30%From 2,300 to ~1,600. The agency that manages other agencies' workforces cut its own.
✅ Agencies Largely Spared
VA (451K → ~445K, -1%), DoD civilian (minimal impact),DHS (actually grew for border enforcement), DOJ (law enforcement protected). The pattern is clear: agencies aligned with administration priorities were protected; regulatory and social program agencies were cut.
⚙️How They Did It
DOGE used every tool in the federal workforce reduction playbook — and invented some new ones:
Hiring Freeze
Government-wide freeze on new hires, with exceptions for national security and law enforcement. Natural attrition (retirements, resignations) reduced headcount without any firings. This alone accounts for ~65,000 positions.
Deferred Resignation Program
Offered federal workers 7-8 months of pay to resign immediately. About 55,000 accepted — many of them senior employees whose institutional knowledge is now lost. Cost: ~$5-7B in severance. Savings: ~$6-8B/year in ongoing salary.
Reduction in Force (RIF)
Formal layoffs governed by 5 CFR Part 351. Complex process involving competitive levels, bumping rights, and retention registers. Legal challenges have slowed many RIFs.
Agency Restructuring
Reorganizations that eliminated entire offices. USAID effectively shuttered, CFPB scaled back, and several small agencies merged or defunded.
Probationary Employee Terminations
New employees in their first year (probationary period) can be fired with minimal process. ~15,000 were terminated.
Return-to-Office Mandate
Full-time in-office requirement for all federal workers. While framed as productivity policy, the clear intent was to induce voluntary resignations from remote workers.
💰The Savings Question
The central claim — that DOGE would save taxpayers trillions — requires scrutiny. Here's an honest accounting:
| Category | DOGE Claim | Independent Est. | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Workforce reduction | $25B/yr | $15-20B/yr | Salary + benefits savings, net of severance |
| Contract terminations | $50B | $10-15B | Many contracts reinstated after service disruptions |
| Fraud reduction | $75B | $3-8B | Most 'fraud' claims were reclassified improper payments |
| Lease/real estate savings | $8B | $2-4B | Most leases have multi-year obligations |
| IT/systems consolidation | $5B | $1-2B | Early stage, most savings future |
| TOTAL (Annual) | ~$160B | ~$35-50B |
Even $35 billion in annual savings is real money — about $100 per American per year. The question isn't whether DOGE saved anything. It's whether the savings justify the disruption to services that real people depend on.
⚠️Unintended Consequences
Workforce reductions always have second-order effects. Some are becoming visible:
Brain Drain
The deferred resignation program disproportionately attracted senior, experienced employees — exactly the people hardest to replace. Average tenure of departed workers: 18 years. Average tenure of remaining workers: 8 years.
Contractor Backfill
Agencies are already replacing lost capacity with contractors at 2-3x the hourly cost. The net savings will be lower than projected once contractor spending is included.
Service Degradation
Social Security processing times up 40%. VA claim backlogs increasing. IRS phone wait times doubled. Passport processing times tripled in some offices.
Legal Costs
Over 60 lawsuits challenging DOGE-related actions. Legal defense costs, court-ordered reinstatements, and back pay awards will eat into savings.
Institutional Knowledge Loss
Many departed employees were the only people who understood critical systems. Several agencies report 'key person risk' — systems no remaining employee can maintain.
Recruitment Damage
Federal job applications down 45% year-over-year. Top university recruitment programs report declining interest. The government is becoming an employer of last resort for technical talent.
⚖️The Verdict So Far
DOGE gets both too much credit and too much blame. Here's our data-driven assessment:
✅ What DOGE Got Right
- • Forced a conversation about government efficiency that was overdue
- • Identified genuine redundancy in multi-layered oversight structures
- • Exposed contract spending that had grown unchecked for decades
- • Savings of $35-50B/year is meaningful — not trivial
- • Demonstrated that the federal workforce is not untouchable
❌ What DOGE Got Wrong
- • Promised $2T, delivered ~$35-50B (a 97% miss)
- • Used a machete where a scalpel was needed
- • Lost critical institutional knowledge through voluntary exits
- • Damaged federal recruitment for a generation
- • Many "cuts" will be backfilled by more expensive contractors
- • Service degradation affecting millions of Americans
The federal government genuinely needs reform. Accountability is important. But sustainable reform requires precision — identifying which positions add value and which don't, then making targeted changes. DOGE's approach of broad cuts followed by "figure it out" is the governmental equivalent of performing surgery with a chainsaw. Some of the growths needed removing. But the patient is bleeding.
We'll continue tracking the data as it comes in. Bookmark this page — we update it monthly.
Explore DOGE Impact Data
See which agencies, occupations, and states are most affected.